12/10/13

Why will I Vote a Reluctant “yes” to the Proposed 2013 Constitution

I will be voting “yes” on the next constitutional referendum. It will be a vote with limited enthusiasm and excitement. It comes about from a painful analysis of the sorry state Egypt is now in. My aspirations for a post revolutionary Egypt remain much higher.

My concern is that the alternative to a positive outcome of the referendum are a great deal more grim. The way I see it, we have three options on the menu:

1. A very hard-core Islamist constitution that will be regressive and anachronistic if the MB or their ilk rise again to power…a “no” will make that more probable.

2. The 2012 constitution which already included military trials (the most abhorrent part in the new constitution), but missing out on many of the good points with regards to freedom of belief and minority rights in the proposed constitution

3. The 1972 constitution which gives the president completely unchecked powers. i.e. full regression to the pre 2011 state.

Escaping the sad fate of 1 makes 2 or 3 (or some mix of the two) very likely . I do not see a fourth option. The revolutionary idealists never managed to organize themselves politically over the last 3 years. Beyond making moral statements, and standing for what they believe is right, their sacrifices have been well exploited by many parasites.

The proposed constitution is still a small victory for the civil and progressive camp. A beach head, that I hope they will be able to expand upon later. The alternative is to risk domination by the Islamists, in which case society will come to complete stasis and no progress will be possible except via an all out civil war.  Although the military will continue to play an active role in Egyptian politics in the coming years, with some hard work and a bit of luck we  might be able to gradually contain and limit their influence. With the Islamists our chances of doing that is zero.

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07/4/13

A coup they say!

In February 2011 the supreme council of the armed forces (SCAF) removed Mubarak. He was then still technically a democratically elected president. The army was responding to the will of the majority of the people. Back then (as now), Mubarak still had a significant number of supporters.

In July 2013 the army, removed a democratically elected autocrat who did a pretty lousy job of running the country and also sought to  impose his ideology on the Egyptian people. Now, as then, the army was responding to the will of the vast majority of Egyptians.

It is to be noted that this time the scale of demonstrations was several times larger than any experienced during January 25-February 11 2011.

We are grateful and proud of our army for the role that he played in both instances. We are well aware the sins of SCAF in the transitional period. We are happy that they seem to have learned from their past mistakes and are opting to stay away for power and have immediately handed power to the the head of supreme court as our constitution indicates in instances of impeachment. We are hopeful that they will continue to show wisdom and maturity in the coming days.

Cartoon by Ahmad Nady showing puny and vocal Morsi supporters attempt at terrorizing Egyptians

To be clear, this is a popular impeachment of democratically elected president. The army here is the  executor of the will of the Egyptian people. To call this a coup, is to gravely insult  the millions who went out to the streets calling for Morsi to step down, braving countless terrorist threats by Islamists and putting their lives at risk  to make their country a beacon on light and civilization in the region and not a breading ground for intolerance and terrorism. 

12/8/12

A battle against democracy or fascism?

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) leadership and public relations apparatus  and their supporters and been  repeating this rhetorical question ad nauseum:

Why are all those protesters going about protesting? There will be a referendum on the constitution in a week and if they do not like newly drafted constitution they could simply say so at the ballot box?

They are also fond of adding:

Those who are currently protesting want to bring down a democratically elected president. They are such sore losers and pathetic whiners. But we will defend the will of the people, we will not let a corrupt and counter-revolutionary minority dictate their will on the rest of society. In a democracy we work out our differences via the ballot box, not protests.

So here I am, standing with those who are crying out for freedom, and being labeled an enemy of democracy and an elitist. Such has been the message that the MB incessantly trying to spread to western media during this recent crisis in Egypt. The message it sends to its members and other hard core “Islamists” supporters is far less varnished, it goes something like that:

Those who oppose the president are enemies of Sharia.  They are westernized secular liberal infidels who must be fought by every means possible. They are enemies of Islam.

In short, they present themselves as victims of retrograde forces that are trying to kill Egypt’s young democracy and that they must also protect legitimacy and sharia (such was the slogan of their demonstration as Cairo University last Friday). Internally, they label their political opponents as infidels and enemies of Islam. In their twisted ideology, such enemies are fair targets for “jihad”, which in the minds of their more hardcore members often translate to physical liquidation.

From the MB’s demonstration  on Dec 1. Egypt’s flag is a sitting mat, and the MB’s banner is held high

It is telling that during their demonstration their were two prominent chants:

يا باديع يا باديع انت تؤمر و أحنا نطيع
Oh Badie, Oh Badie, you order and we obey

and the more ominous

إدي يا ريس الإشارة واحنا نجيبهوملك في شكارة
Give us a signal president and we will be bring them (i.e. your opponents) in a body bag

Such are the peaceful way of the brotherhood. The president, it seems, wields secondary power compared to Badie (the MB’s supreme guide). It was the supreme guide who was issuing statements today about how get out this impasse and not Morsi.

Most of those who voted for Morsi in the presidential elections thought they were voting for a president, not a marionette who is controlled by the leader of an organized that is shrouded in secrecy and that is implicated in numerous terrorists activities.

It is becoming clearer by the day that Morsi is not your garden variety president, he is backed by highly organized group who can act as his shock troops on demand. Morsi has been trying hard to maintain a strangle hold on popular media via his minister of information (a sort of miniature Joseph Goebbels). In the past few months, Morsi’s administration has been politically appointing members of the brotherhood in key position in Egypt’s sprawling governmental bureaucracy. Most Morsi’s speeches have been from inside mosques and the language and rhetoric are more akin to a grand khalif  that a president.  Liberals as becoming increasingly aware that if left unchecked Morsi might do seriouse damage to Egypt’s tolerant and cheerful culutral DNA. Morsi has not given reason in the past five months for his non-MB and non-Salfi supporters to trust him. Hence, the vast majority of liberals and leftists have come to the conclusion that this is man who is almost impossible to do business with. Almost all Morsi’s non-Islamist advisors have abandoned him.

Morsi has given himself unlimited powers via his illegal constitutional decree. There was nothing in the constitution that he had sworn to respect that  gave him the power to issue constitutional decrees at will. In the early days of his presidential term, Morsi had annulled a similar decree that was issued by the supreme council of the armed forces (SCAF) on the grounds that it was not put up for referendum.  In the face of mounting public criticism, Morsi seems to be trying to deflect attention away from his failing by  pushing the country to the brink of a civil war. He does that by painting his opponents has enemies of religion and unleashing his shook troops to cow them into submission. The counter reaction is often quite ugly and many, in response to losing hope in attaining any measure of justice, are resorting to attacking  the headquarters of the Freedom and Justice party (FJP).

Morsi declaring to the MB and other Islamists: “In the name of the infallible, inerrant, and untouchable ruler. I call upon thee to prepare for a  holy ‘Jihad’ to protect my holiness”  (by Ahmed Nady)

I feel we are living under a reign of terror. MB militias can go about and beat-up and torture anyone with impunity. They can then claim to be victims, and try to muster sympathy for another vicious attack. They even stoop so low as to claim those who died during clashes with their militias as their own martyrs. Things were never that bad under Mubarak. The MB have no problem reneging on oaths or promises, they lie, they deceive,  they distort, they torture, and they murder. They even have the nerve to do all of this while falsely claiming that it justified by divine law. They flagrantly violate the Sharia that they claim to be protecting. They pose the greatest threat to genuine message of  Islam (at least from my perspective)  in modern times.

Morsi is asking us to be patient and trust him fully for two month while he retains his god like powers. We have a very bad history to giving rulers full trust and full authority and hoping they will relinquish it when it is no longer necessary. It started with the coup d’etat in 1952, when the generals promised they would restore democracy in a year or so, and they stayed in power for 60 years.  Mubarak has his emergency status that was supposed to last a few months, extended to 30 years. SCAF was suppose to hand over power to civilian control in 6 months and it lasted for over a year (it could have lasted much longer, if was not for the tax in blood that the revolutionaries had to pay).  Now we have Morsi! He has given us no reason to trust him and has no accomplishments that would vouch for him. But, he has his militias and his supporters to call up to crush those opposed to him. They fail to see how absurd they sound when they declare “We are going out to protest against the protesters who are protesting against our president.”

Why am I going out in protests and risking live and limb? Is it to thrust this or that politician forward? Is is pure hatred for  Islam (as the MB and their friends like to claim)? No. I am simply fighting for right to live in this land with a modicum of freedom. I do what I do because I do not want my children to be tortured or disfigure for expressing their views.  I do not want them to be arrested for the crime of thinking differently as Morsi and his friend would have it. I do not want people issuing fatwas that it is okay to kill them for opposing a particular politician (yes we have that now and they do so without any risk of prosecution). I do not want them to live as second class citizens in while the MB lays waste their history and cultural heritage.

It is absurd to cast the current struggle as one between pro and anti Morsi groups. It is one between those whos stand for fascism and those who fight for freedom.

The protester at the presidential palace (Itihadeya) on Dec 7, after the broke through the army’s barricades and occupied the road leading to the palace. 

We will fight this battle out to whatever conclusion. Our failure would be a disaster for Egypt and a terrible calamity for the rest of the world. 

12/6/12

Premonitions of a civil war

Any illusions that religious extremists can be rehabilitated by forming political parties, should now be dispelled. It is becoming quite clear to that this we have replaced a dictatorship by a murderous fascist organization. Terrorists will never give up their violent ways for ballot box. They will subvert the democratic process itself to insure domination. They will cheat, lie, bribe, and kill in their pursuit for unchecked powers. The rehabilitation experiment is now over, and what remains now is struggle (likely to be bloody) to remove the religious fascists from power and to find a way to heal the nation afterwards.

Prelude to the great clash:

  • Morsi’s ambitions plan for the first 100 days of his presidency was nothing but smoke and mirrors
  • Police brutality is the on the rise without the slightest hint of reform
  • No sign of reforming Egypt’s corrupt governmental institutions
  • A crack down on the media that leaves many wondering about freedom of speech 
  • Banning porn sites, which many see a an forerunner to online political censorship. 
  • Shirking from responsibility in response to the terrible crash that left 51 children dead.
  • The killing of a political activist Salah Gabr near Tahrir and three of more in later clashes
  • Morsi issues a shocking constitutional declaration last Thursday he gave himself god-like powers.  He can issue laws at will, through anyone in jail to “protect the revolution”, will being fully unaccountable to any authority. This was in clear violation of the laws and constitution he had sworn to protect and uphold when he was sworn in as president.
  • Burning of the freedom and justice party (FJP) offices in several governarates in response of the killings in Tahrir and the dictatorial decleartion
  • Massive protests against Morsi in Tahrir in Nov 27, and Nov 30. They demanded that the dictatorial constitutional declaration be annulled, and that the current constituent assembly be dissolved and new one formed the is more representative of Egyptian society. 
  • Morsi responds by orders the constituent assembly to finalized their work in couple of days and put a new constitution up for referendum  
  • Morsi gets his supporters to stage a large rally near Cairo University. Those who organized the rally declared that the rally is about “Legitimacy and Sharia”. Many of the rally participants who, were shipped in on buses from all over Egypt, viewed the political dispute as a battle between godless infidels and their God fearing president who want to reinstate divine law in the land.
  • On Tuesday Dec 4 the largest march since the early days of a the revolution moves toward the presidential palace. The march was intended to give Morsi, “one last warning”. It was supposed to pressure him into some sort of political compromise. The march was peaceful, and at the end of the day many protesters staged a sit-in in-front of the presidential palace in Heliopolis.
  • Morsi responds by sending armed militias on Dec 5, from all over the country to break the sit-in that and display the might of his group. The police and army do nothing as peaceful protests are beaten and tortured. More Morsi supporters and pro-democracy protesters arrive and wide scale fighting ensues.   Morsi’s supporters are armed with shotguns, tear gas, knives and swords. The battle becomes more intense, six are killed and over 350 injured. 

Morsi is simply saying to those who disagree with him: go to hell!!
In times when a constitution is at stake, a wise leader works to build consensus. He does not go around beating up his opponents. He does does not start a civil war. 


The revolutionaries are not some sheep that you can shoo off with stick. Morsi is treading very dangerous waters. The little hope for a political solution out of this impasse that might have persevered a little that is left of his dignity is now, beyond any doubt, over.

A popular perception is growing is the Obama administration is strongly backing Morsi. The US showered praise upon Morsi  as a respectable  international statesman for his effort in mediating a cease fire in Gaza. He was on the cover of time as “the most important man in the middle east“. His absurd obstinacy only became clear after lavish praise by Clinton and others were heaped upon him.   Many see the Morsi as the US’ man in Egypt, in the same way the Mubarak was. Many see that the United States has not given up the habit of cultivating dictators that are friendly to their interests in the middle east.

If we succumb now to fascists who cloak their murderous ways in religion, the implication for Egypt and the rest of the world will be dire indeed. In minds of all Egyptian liberals, Morsi has lost all legitimacy. He must step down, or be forced to step down. It appears that there is no peaceful ways to achieving that. The less bloody option would  involve the army stepping it. It the army steps in, we are back to SCAF rule. The liberal coalition leadership in the form of ElBaradie, Sabahy, and Amr Mousa seem to be running out of creative solutions to this crisis.

A civil war seems eminent. Lord have mercy!

08/13/12

Changing the rules of the game

Morsi turned out to be a mastermind at scheming and hatching plots and making bold moves. In one swoop he:

  1. Neutered the dreaded SCAF
  2. Cut sweet deals with high members of the judiciary and the military 
  3. Singlehandedly canceled  amendments to the constitutional declaration and even rewrote bits of the constitutional declaration to give him more power

The events that transpired yesterday is still leaving many with their heads spinning. None expected the mighty SCAF could be so easily displace. Very few are questioning if his moves are legal or constitutional. Among the ranks of the revolutionaries, many are just happy to see SCAF gone, and that an elected president is asserting his powers. With regards to ridding rough-shoot over legal constraints, the logic is  “SCAF has already  done that before, many times, so why not a elected president”.

Yesterday, Morsi managed transform himself from a fumbling president to a national (or even supranational) leader. His powers seem to expanding without limit. During last night’s speech his tone, demeanor and words seemed to be of someone who is trying to attain full spiritual and corporeal powers in the manner of the “rightly guided caliphs” in the early days of Islam. He made sweeping allusions to the wider Muslim Ummah and the important role the Egypt must play in it. Morsi alluded to the divine mandate under which he sees himself operating. His said:

Islam has everything we need as we progress to stability, security, safety, renaissance, and development…. we move towards and better tomorrow. Do not worry, for it is God who protects this Ummah, not by my work, but through his will.

Morsi clearly sees himself as the executer of  divine will and the man most capable of gleaning solutions to the nation’s troubles via his elevated reading of Islam. Some went as far as seeing his speech as a veiled declaration of the “Islamic Republic of Egypt”. The new Caliph is in town, he gets make new rules and execute them at will. 

Many do not yet see it, but this is bad news for the revolution and the revolutionaries. Combining executive and legislation powers and having substantial influence over the judiciary is quite worrying. Morsi has more power than Mubarak ever did. History teaches us that power,once obtained, is rarely ceded without a fight.

07/23/12

The trouble with our right brained revolution

In Ian McGilchrist’s master piece “The Master and his Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World” a brilliant exposition is made of the functional divisions of the brain, but more importantly between two modes of experiencing the world that are often in conflict with each other. The right hemisphere with it focus on synthesis and connection on the broadest universal sense and the left hemisphere with its focus on breaking things up and narrow attention. That conflict is beautifully captured in a fable (attributed to Nietzsche) the goes

There was one a wise spiritual master, who was the ruler of a small but prosperous domain, and who was known for his selfless devotion to his people. As his people flourished and grew in number, the bounds of this small domain spread; and it with it the need to trust implicit the emissaries he sent to ensure the safety of it ever more distant parts. It was not just that it was impossible for him personally to order all that needed to be dealt with: as he wisely saw, he needed to keep his distance from, and remain ignorant of, such concerns. And so he nurtured and trained carefully his emissaries, in order that they could be trusted. Eventually, however, his cleverest and most ambitious vizier, the one he most trusted to do his work, began to see himself as the master, and used his position to advance his own wealth and influence. He saw his master’s temperance and forbearance as weakness, not wisdom, and on his mission on the the master’s behalf, adopted his mantle as his own – the emissary became contemptuous of his master. And so it came about that the master was usurped, the people were duped, the domain became a tyranny; and eventually it collapsed in ruins.

The master (right hemisphere) has been usurped by the emissary (left hemisphere), such has been the tragedy of our times. We live in “[a]n increasingly mechanistic, fragmented, decontextualised word, marked by unwarranted optimism mixed with paranoia and a feeling of emptiness”. It is a case of a “dysfunctional left hemisphere” dominating our experience of the world  

The impetus of the Egyptian revolution as I experienced it, was clearly of the right brained variety. There were no plan,  script, or grand idea that roused noble passions. It was, as McGilchrist would put it “essentially involv[ing] a certain disposition, the disposition to experience sorrow at the other’s misfortune… To be just is to be disturbed by injustice. Pain, suffering, and the loss of pleasure, then, sometimes constitute who we are and what we value. They are essentially woven into our deepest commitments. As reasons flow from our deepest commitments, we will sometimes have non-instrumental reason to suffer.”

It was the pain and suffering that we experienced during the revolution that made many of us feel  more human, more willing sacrifice our physical being for something with a touch of the divine. Something electrified our right hemispheres and awaken in us a fresh, yet somewhat latent, vision of reality. What that “something” is? Words fail at capturing it. It feels to me that the attempt to describe it would limit it, defile it, and cheapen it.  This is beautifully put by McGilchrist

Making things explicit is the equivalent of focusing on the workings, at the expense of the work, the medium at the expense of the message. Once opaque, the plane of attention is in the wrong place, as it we focused on the mechanics of the play, not on the substance of the play itself; or on the plane of the canvas, not what is seen there. 

Yes, we cried in Tahrir for “bread, freedom, and social justice”, but the words have since been prey to demagogic abuse and political manipulation. It was the process, the mechanism, the prime cause that gave rise to those words and a myriad of creative expressions in Tahrir we should have protected and preserved. We now seems to be chasing phantoms of that humanizing force. Mere shadows, distortions, and reflections and not the pure light itself.

Today marks the 60th anniversary of the 23 July revolution. A purely left brained affair. Young officers planned, schemed, and calculated to maximize their personal self-interest. The young officers lacked little in terms of rational ability. They often fumbled, but their rational motives were always clear. Their drive to dominate was a purely selfish affair, no empathy, no love of other, and no altruism. The current ruling Junta (SCAF) are a byproduct of the earlier revolution. We rose against those mechanical men, who can only conceive of a world were people are spurs and gears in a diabolical machines of their construction. Devoid of creative abilities their machines jammed and broke down and yet they continue to fix them. They are prisoners of their hackneyed mental constructions.

Many who truly witnessed the revolution of 2011 still believe in their hearts that another world is possible. It was a world that they had a glimpse of in the 18 days following January 25, 2011. But it is also a world that they failed to protect. The rise of Islamists now represents yet an another manifestation of the lifeless and mechanical vision of the world. Yet, it is far more insidious. It makes appeals to that which gives meaning and beauty to the lives of many. In its ascent it will lay barren fertile fields of human values. Religion, like many things that are of crucial importance to our human existence

…cannot withstand being too closely attended to, since their nature is to be indirect or implicit. Forcing them into explicitness changes their nature completely, so that in such cases what we come to think we know ‘certainly’ is in fact not truly known at all. Too much self-awarness destroys not just spontaneity, but the quality that makes things live; …. religious devotion [can hence] become  mechanical, lifeless, and may grind to a half if we are too self-aware.

With each passing day, I feel the memory of the early days in Tahrir ebbing away. The sublime beauty of the experience is giving way self-doubt and disbelief. The noise of the immediate is becoming overbearing. A noise that captures the attention of the left brain. Through innumerable logical (yet mostly fake and self-serving) contraptions the limits of what is possible are being drawn. How will our right brained revolution survive as its pathos gradually slips away from mass consciousness? 

In the absence of truly inspired artists, all that will remain will be some slogans with continually diminishing potency, as smattering of confused ideological posturing, and dreams that can not “be make explicit” lost in the detritus of time.

I can only pray that the following statement will hold true: “The spirit grows, [and] strength is restored, by wounding”

Increscunt animi, virescit volnere virtus
06/19/12

Where is the Front Line of the Egyptian Revolution?

We are now being dragged in battles that are of marginal significance to the  aims to the Egyptian revolution. They only alter the distribution of power amongst parties that have a vested interest in maintaining the very same political structure and web of interests that Egyptians revolted against a year and a half ago.

One of he prominent rallying calls of the revolution was “the people want to bring the system down”. The major features of the system where:

  • Opacity: nobody had a clue of what goes on the in corridors of powers where  destinies were being shaped.
  • Insularism: the population felt helpless and that the voices are not heard and their needs are not answered. There was a general feeling that a things were getting worse, not much could be done about it.
  • Overbearingness: the state was the all powerful and would stifle any attempts of independent or group action. NGO work was often restricted and subject to intrusive governmental oversight. 
  • Duplicitousness: the state promoted lies and engaged in disinformation campaigns to justify its existence. It made life difficult for dissenters and free thinkers and tried to isolate (and when no one was looking eliminate) them to prevent any nascent challenge to their authority. 

Those feature gave rise to cronyism and wide spread corruption that made daily  life very bleak for the average Egyptian. Hence, the popular chant in the early days “Bread, Freedom, and Social Justice”. Now the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is  engaged in a power struggle with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Both of them have shown very clearly, during the past year and a half, that they are eager to maintain the promulgate  those features.

The power struggle between MB and SCAF has little bearing on what I see as the a key implicit demand of Egyptian revolution:

To create an open and transparent econo-political system with maximum latitude for popular initiative and collective problem solving.

This can never come about while the above features remain intact. I do not see it worth the effort of the revolutionaries to engage in “symbolic wars” against SCAF or to come to the aide MB as long as those features remain intact. There should be instead a concerted intellectual effort to chart and path that would  eliminate those rotten features and supplanting them by novel and efficient ones.

Chanting in Tahrir against the symptoms (or emergent properties) of the said features will not bring about positive change. The battle now is for outlining a clear plan for system wide transition and forming popular consensus about it.

06/11/12

A Game Theoretic Perspective on the Current Voting Dilemma

I am here trying to expose the rational reasons of my choice. My decision is to invalidate my vote in the upcoming elections.
You have a rational player (lets call him S) who is now entrusted with setting a up game were different parties compete. S has a vested interest in the outcome of the game. S would have to be incredibly altruistic not to make the rules of the game favor the outcome he desires.

You have also have another player, (lets call him M) who has been getting small positive payoffs from S. M was foolish enough to think he could outmaneuver S at his own game. In fact, M was directly responsible for putting S in a position to put down the rules of the game and was immediately given small rewards, while another player (named R) objected strongly. 

In strategic interactions between S and R, S has shown himself to be completely non-altruistic and R suffered severe negative payoffs. In strategic interactions between M and R, M has shown himself to be also completely non-altruistic and R suffered negative payoffs, but not as severe as when it interacted with S. 

R is now asked to support either M or S in a game in which he was eliminated. The outcome of that game will determine who gets to interact strategically with R in the future. R’s support for either player is costly (i.e. it is an acknowledgment of the rules of  the game). R knows that S will not be fully eliminated under any outcome. R calculates that his expected payoff is unlikely to change under any outcome. R knows that although long ago his payoffs were strongly correlated with M, but that has ceased to be the case.
R decides not play this game.