{"id":69,"date":"2011-06-08T22:59:00","date_gmt":"2011-06-08T22:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/?p=69"},"modified":"2011-06-08T22:59:00","modified_gmt":"2011-06-08T22:59:00","slug":"the-revolution-in-transition-the-main-players","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/?p=69","title":{"rendered":"The Revolution in Transition: The Main Players"},"content":{"rendered":"
I am not too happy writing is post, I am actually downright feeling guilty to have undertaken to do that. What I attempt to explore here is the balance of forces between the different players in post revolutionary Egypt. That would have been perfectly okay if not for the fact the many of those who once stood together at Tahrir are currently drawing\u00a0ideological battle lines and staking their claims to future of Egypt. This sits in dark contrast with the days of unity and\u00a0\u00a0the elation that we all felt in Tahrir as being all one<\/a>. In those days\u00a0there was something that bounded us that\u00a0transcended any\u00a0ideology.<\/p>\n

I urge you to resist the\u00a0temptation\u00a0to \u00a0start rolling your eyes, thinking that the author of these lines is nothing but a\u00a0weary revolutionary who has little understanding of the forces of history and natural propensity of humans adopt\u00a0differing\u00a0and often opposing ideological stances. In this post I am not calling for any form of ideological unity. I know this to would be difficult (if not impossible) to\u00a0achieve\u00a0and is not\u00a0necessarily desirable. I attempt here to\u00a0briefly\u00a0present an idiosyncratic reading of all the current players and their possible strategies.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0<\/b>Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF)\u00a0<\/b>
The\u00a0SCAF\u00a0runs the\u00a0Egyptian\u00a0army with all its associated industrial and\u00a0commercial\u00a0interests<\/a>, the primary concerns that drive their moves are:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Insuring that SCAF members and their minions will not come under any public\u00a0scrutiny\u00a0with regards to their spending habits,\u00a0benefits,\u00a0profiteering, and relationship with Mubarak\u00a0and his coterie. (Basic survival)<\/li>\n
  2. Making sure that the emerging\u00a0political\u00a0landscape will not at any time run against (1), and hence their interest in having the a strong say in how the new constitution\u00a0will get drafted and\u00a0approved. (Medium term Survival)<\/li>\n
  3. Maintaining a the popular\u00a0perception that people and army’s leadership are one hand (Long term\u00a0Survival).\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    The SCAF will not have any designs on direct power if someone can do the job for them. It appears that they are willing to cut deals with whomever will assuage their concerns. The road-map that they have put forth for democratic transition appears serve well their\u00a0survival\u00a0interests.\u00a0<\/div>\n
    <\/div>\n
    The Muslim Brotherhood (MB)<\/b><\/div>\n
    The MB is a very resilient\u00a0organization\u00a0that has managed to survive the political tumult of Egypt for over 82 years. They have grand pan-Islamic project that they have been\u00a0unrelentingly\u00a0trying\u00a0to achieve in Egypt and elsewhere. Their leadership has often displayed some degree of political opportunism<\/a> throughout their history. They were the King’s Men in the time of Farouk, they blessed the 1952 revolution, and they now seek\u00a0favor\u00a0with the SCAF by presenting themselves as well organized political block that the SCAF could do\u00a0business\u00a0with. They are now the SCAF’s loudest cheerleaders.\u00a0The MB see themselves as having a significant\u00a0competitive\u00a0 advantage over all the other political forces that they would want to make the best use of that, before there edge becomes blunted.\u00a0They seem to be working along following\u00a0strategies:<\/div>\n
    \n
      \n
    1. Making sure that nothing upsets they road-map that was put forth by SCAF as it best serves their interests.<\/li>\n
    2. Building alliances with “Salfi” groups and using them at the front lines while presenting themselves as\u00a0religious moderates<\/li>\n
    3. Establishing good ties with the\u00a0venerable\u00a0Azhar university and gradually subsuming it\u00a0ideologically.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
      The prize of the MB is get to control the\u00a0parliament following the\u00a0election\u00a0in\u00a0September. It they succeed, they will draft a\u00a0constitution\u00a0to their liking and get to shape the future political landscape to their advantage.\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
      <\/div>\n
      The Socialists\u00a0<\/b><\/div>\n
      Economic\u00a0disfranchisement was one of the key\u00a0catalysis the brought forth the revolution, but hearing the\u00a0rhetoric of many leftists one might assume it was the\u00a0singular\u00a0motive force. The\u00a0socialist seem to be standing quite divided and they seem to be engaged in\u00a0internecine\u00a0\u00a0ideological\u00a0warfare. Although they very vocal about the rights of the\u00a0downtrodden, they seem to have little to say about how can the economy can be shaped in a way that would make it\u00a0globally competitive and attractive\u00a0to investors. One can see little in terms of \u00a0strategy beyond\u00a0dismantling\u00a0the exploitative\u00a0economic\u00a0system that we have in\u00a0inherited\u00a0from the Mubarak era..\u00a0<\/div>\n
      <\/div>\n
      The Liberals\u00a0<\/b><\/div>\n
      Often\u00a0Mubarak’s economic policy is\u00a0labeled “liberal” and hence the word has become laden with negative\u00a0connotations. To make matters worse\u00a0Islamist \u00a0have\u00a0often spewed vitriol by equating\u00a0liberalism with\u00a0 licentiousness and\u00a0debauchery in their\u00a0\u00a0sermons. Beyond their emphasis the basic\u00a0civil rights, they have provided little in terms of coherent economic policies that would address the\u00a0accumulated\u00a0social injustices. \u00a0\u00a0<\/div>\n
      <\/div>\n
      The\u00a0Ideologically\u00a0Agnostic\u00a0\u00a0(IA)<\/b><\/div>\n
      This group is the probably the largest constituency of those who participated in the revolution. They share common broad concerns about the country and they have yet to subscribe to any given political\u00a0philosophy. The ElAdl<\/a> party seem to\u00a0particularly\u00a0 cater\u00a0\u00a0for this group, and also pressure group know as Djabha<\/a>. Yet this group, like the\u00a0liberals and the socialists \u00a0is still\u00a0struggling to formulate a coherent political and economic plan.\u00a0<\/div>\n
      <\/div>\n
      The\u00a0energies\u00a0of the Liberals, Socialists and the IA seems to be\u00a0completely sapped in putting out fires like sectarian strife,\u00a0\u00a0anti-protest laws, and human rights abuses. They are also trying to fight rhetoric levied\u00a0against them by Islamist and an assortment of counter revolutionary groups.\u00a0\u00a0<\/div>\n
      <\/div>\n
      Where do we go from here?<\/b><\/div>\n
      Drafting a\u00a0constitution\u00a0involves a great deal of compromise where the point is to lay down \u00a0the essential principles of the relationship between\u00a0citizens and the state and how\u00a0societal self corrective forces work. It is hard, or\u00a0nigh\u00a0impossible\u00a0to do that in an\u00a0environment where the different players are focused of defining the battle line to gain advantage. An\u00a0attitude\u00a0of\u00a0\u00a0beggaring\u00a0thy\u00a0ideological\u00a0opponent\u00a0is bound to spell\u00a0\u00a0disaster. It is not clear how one can temper the lust for power of many of those groups. I only \u00a0hope the IA will grow quickly more organized and will rise above such petty\u00a0ideological\u00a0warfare. It is the only way I can think of for the spirit of the revolution to live just a bit longer to lay a new and fresh foundation for the second Egyptian republic.\u00a0<\/div>\n

      \n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      I am not too happy writing is post, I am actually downright feeling guilty to have undertaken to do that. What I attempt to explore here is the balance of forces between the different players in post revolutionary Egypt. That would have been perfectly okay if not for the fact the many of those who […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,25,14,10,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-egypt","category-jan25","category-revolution","category-scaf","category-tahrir"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=69"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=69"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=69"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perfectionatic.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=69"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}